A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
